LegendBets Newsletter

LegendBets Newsletter

Brackets!

Welcome to the least productive work week of the year.

Keith Rosintoski's avatar
Keith Rosintoski
Mar 18, 2024
∙ Paid
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Hey Bettors,

I hope you enjoyed bid stealing weekend, it feels like college hoops stole from St. Patrick's Day weekend, but maybe that was just for me.

Saturday March 16th / Sunday March 17th Recap

SELECTION: PURDUE -5

RESULT: LOSS

Purdue never looked like covering and eventually lost outright, bad number, bad wager.

SELECTION: OREGON +3

RESULT: WON

Closed +2, won outright. Probably on the right side, Dante is a monster.

Selection Sunday

The committee had a tough job ahead of them, and ultimately there were no perfect decisions thanks to all the bid stealing that went on this weekend. Indiana State probably has the best case to be made for missing out. I would have had them ahead of Virginia, Drake, and James Madison, who’s the worst at large on my numbers. And the world misses out on seeing Robbie Avila, nicknamed "Cream Abdul Jabbar" or "Steph Blurry" if you will.

The worst team in the tournament goes to Wagner, who would have been an underdog no matter who they played. We'll discuss this further this week but Auburn seems underseeded as a 4 seed, as I stack rank them 6th overall. Other notable under-seeded teams include New Mexico who will be the most popular 11-seed pick for certain, and Colorado who stack rank in the top 25 in this tournament and are a 10 seed. The most over-seeded is North Carolina, which is a #1 seed, and I'd make a dog to at least a half dozen teams, even if the market disagrees on one or two of those. South Carolina also fits the overseeded box, they check in as a #6 seed and may not be favored in their first-round matchup vs the #11 seeded Oregon Ducks, and they wouldn't be favored over any other 6s, any 7s, any 8s, any 9s, you get the idea.

SOME EARLY PLAYS FOR THE MEN'S TOURNAMENT

PLAY IN GAMES

WEDNESDAY MARCH 20TH

640 PM EST GRAMBLING VS MONTANA STATE -3.5 (-115) FANDUEL

I make this -6.5 for Montana State, so -3.5 is certainly value but I think ML is the better way to go so you don't have to lay the -3.5. You'd expect something in the -260 range if this were priced at -6.5, so laying -178 is more than fair.

SELECTION: MONTANA STATE MONEY LINE (-178) FANDUEL

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